France: The movement of ‘Gilets Jaunes’

The announcement of new energy policy measures in France has triggered a public backlash in the mid of November, leading to the birth of the yellow vests (gilets jaunes) movement. The choice of this specific garment is rather symbolic and associated with the legal obligation of all  French motorists to carry with them on their vehicles.

Who are the Gilets Jaunes?

Since its early stages, the movement has evolved so rapidly. From public disapproval to the increasing diesel prices on social media, it has come to be the first dynamic movement since 1968 with revolutionary tendencies fighting the current recession and oppression of the lower middle class in France. In order to better understand the above statement, it is essential to dig further into the raison d’être of the gilets jaunes.

Their line of argumentation is based on the vital role of a car for the daily transportation of the people living in rural and less populated areas. Therefore, the implementation of this new measure would have targeted this demographic group by increasing their everyday expenses and lowering their annual income.

In the meantime, more and more citizens have decided to protest to the streets all over the country. Despite its peaceful nature,  the lack of leadership has rendered the yellow vest protests into violent riots over the last month. Frankly, the infiltration of extremist groups in public protests is a common tactic among these groups that usually feed off from the public outrage and turn the country into chaos.

For this reason, French police have taken more drastic measures by deploying more forces and moving onto massive arrests. In fact, this temporary solution may have paid off and deterred rioters from further destruction. However, the government will need to search for more effective ways to restore its trust.

What’s the government’s position in this current upheaval

Before we moving on to the analysis of the government’s stance, it is important to understand the reasons behind the adoption of these strict measures. For Macron, the main objective was to drop the national budget deficit below 3% of the gross domestic product; to enhance the alignment with the EU targets regarding the carbon emissions mitigation. Despite this pioneering initiative, there is no clear roadmap of how to deliver such a demanding target.

On December 10, the president spoke to the public in regards to the current situation tormenting the country. Not only he admitted openly his wrongdoing but also committed to freezing the planned carbon taxes while also announced a number of financial benefits to support low incomes.

Contrary to his initial decision to modernise the country, the president conceded to the demands of the yellow vests. Back on the 2017 presidential elections, Macron managed to unite divided France under his En Marche movement and win the elections from the far-right party National Front. Nevertheless, the fact that his political survival depends on the support of the grassroots –  especially after the sharp decline of his popularity below the 25% – has pushed Macron to accept some of their terms with the expectation to win over the moderate voices of the yellow vests.

Whether these concessions reverse Macron’s negative publicity, it is rather debatable. By giving in to the demands of the yellow vests, Macron has only offered a temporary solution to the problem but failed to cease the increasing tension. At the moment, the focus of the yellow vests has shifted from the annulment of the energy taxes to the resignation of the president.

Soon, the president will face the following dilemma; to give in to the demands of the dissenters and abandon his plan to modernize France; or remain firm on his principle with the risk of turning the country into a battlefield. Prior to any decisions, it would be wise to study first the weakness of his competitors as well as the causes behind the failure of his predecessors to change the traditional status quo in France.

A future of uncertainty inside and outside France

After the suspension of carbon taxes, the government will have to seek alternative sources to cut public spending. Based on the latest developments, the Central Bank of France has alerted the public of the drop in the national growth by 0.2 % for the fourth quarter. To make matters worse, the absence of leadership is likely to render any future negotiations more difficult; or worse, divide the movement internally including the public opinion.

Admittedly, the movement has had a worldwide appeal. Groups with similar objectives in  Greece and Argentina have already pledged their allegiance to the French protesters. Similar protests of citizens dressed in yellow vests have emerged in neighbouring countries like Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands.

By the end of this analysis, the main message that needs to be delivered is that the public distrust can easily divert people to populism as their last resort. By trying to blame a number of outraged citizens and labelling them as extreme right or far-left, will only divide further the public opinion. Therefore, the sooner the policymakers realise that the source of these protests stems from the flaws of the current political status, the easier it will become to mitigate similar phenomena.

As easily as public outrage can be targeted by violent forced – with serious repercussion for the social order –  the risk of fostering anarchy remains imminent not only for democracies with a vulnerability to riots but also for democracies with greater immunity to such phenomena. A characteristic example is the UK. The scenario of a no post-Brexit agreement could have had a direct impact on the British economy leaving room to the increase of the public distrust and the emergence of similar riots.

Photo: Rémi-Ange Couzinet, Manif_lille_026_gilets_jaunes (2018). Source: (flickr.com) | (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

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