The Israel-Palestine Conflict

A new Middle East conflict on the rise

The timeline of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to date

Fifty years have passed since the six-day war and the Israeli-Palestinian dispute has not been resolved. Its roots lie back in 1947 with the parallel birth of the Arab and Israeli nationalism. The vision for a Greater Israel or Palestine has nurtured the hatred between the two nations and led to the Six-Day War in 1967. At that time, Israel conquered the West Bank from Jordan; Gaza Strip from Egypt.

In the meantime, the rise of the Israeli right and the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat added heavily to the incremental polarization of the Israel-Palestine conflict. It was not until the Oslo Accords in 1993 that the two parties agreed to reconcile after reaching an agreement for the establishment of an Interim Self-Government Palestinian Authority; the return of the West Bank and Gaza to Palestinians; the formation of joint security cooperation in the area. In the negotiations followed, the status of Jerusalem remained unclear, as well as the future of the Israelis settlements and military locations in the West Bank. Instead, it was only stated that the Israeli military forces would be free to move around the Gaza Strip.

One might ask how did this old enmity revive after all this strenuous effort for reconciliation? With Netanyahu in power, the continuous housing construction of Israeli settlements in the West Bank has caused too much upheaval. In fact, the Israeli government made it clear that the two-state solution is not part of its current agenda. It remains also unlikely that 400,000 Israelis will abandon their homes in the West Bank. On the contrary, the official line of Israel strives for the restoration of its control over the 1967 lost ground in the West Bank and East Jerusalem; an area granted to the Palestinian State as laid down in the Oslo Accords.

For Palestinians, the moderate approach of nationalism that Mahmoud Abbas – the 81-year old successor of Arafat from Fatah party – represents, is dividing further the Palestinian Authority; on the one hand, a group of nationalists controls the West Bank, while Islamists in Gaza live under the rule of Hamas since 2007. For some of his critics, Abbas lacks negotiating power, which comes at a great cost to Palestine.

Another important aspect that adds to this diachronic dispute is the religious tie of the Palestinian issue with Islam. First of all, the vicinity of the ISIS-occupied territory with Israel and Palestine poses an immediate threat to the security of both parties. Due to the accumulated hatred all these years, the conflict attracts the proselytism of Palestinian Muslims from ISIS, especially the young ones who grew up with the promise of a Palestinian State. Second, the scenario of moving the US embassy to Jerusalem would cause a massive Islamic reaction – given that Jerusalem is considered the third most sacred city of Islam. The rise of the anti-Americanism and anti-Semitism could lead to the revoke of Israel’s recognition; or worse, fuel a holy war of Islam against the US-Israel alliance (Broder, 2017).

The US involvement in the debate under Obama’s presidency

Traditionally, Israel is considered a key American ally in the Middle East. Not only the two countries share the same democratic values, but there is also an alignment of national security interests, which explains the commitment of many American Presidents and Congressmen towards Israel’s security.

During Barack Obama’s presidency, the strong diplomatic ties have deteriorated. Despite not having widely diverged from the previous administrations, the anti-settlement stance of Obama has caused the rage of the Israeli hardliners, presumably due to his “vocal and early opposition” (Burleigh, 2016).

At the end of 2016, the tension between the two countries ratcheted up after the UN Security Council passed a resolution on the Israeli settlements and demanded from Israel to stop the illegal settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Overall, 14 out of the 15 members of the Council voted in favour of the resolution, while the United States chose to abstain; in other words, not to veto the UN resolution. In return, Netanyahu blamed Obama for the anti-Israeli measure; for retaliation, the Prime Minister ordered the expansion of the Israeli constructions in the West Bank and threatened to reevaluate the 1993 Oslo Accords by recapturing the land gained in the 1967 war. Of course, this behaviour contravenes international law and undermines the two-state solution, which clearly defines the Israeli-Palestinian borders.

To date, reaching the 600,000 settlers in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, the latest expansion of the Israeli developments is the largest since 2014. For Palestine, Israel’s occupation threatens its sovereignty and independence as well as hampers severely the economic and social development in the region (UN, 2016a). It is estimated that the conflict has unfolded the food aid since 2000 and led to prolonging displacements amounting to 1.2 million Palestinian refugees since 1948.

A change of diplomatic course in Trump era

After Trump’s inauguration as the next US president, a new era in the US-Israel relations has begun. In reality, the overt support that Trump administration shows for Israel is hurting the peace process; not only its pro-Israeli stance strengthens the role of the Israeli Right but also encourages the construction of new developments in the West Bank. Under these circumstances, the two-state solution, which represented the backbone of the American foreign policy for both Republicans and Democrats, is no longer viable. Many foreign affair experts have expressed their concern for the selection of David Friedman¹ as the US ambassador in Israel and Jason Dov Greenblatt for the Israel adviser role. Admittedly, the composition of the presidential cabinet with right-wing supporters lacking diplomatic experience hinders the restoration efforts.

What’s more, the relocation debate of the American embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem has fuelled the tension. Theoretically, this provision is already outlined in the Jerusalem Embassy Act². However, its implementation contradicts the Palestinian hopes for the city as its future capital and is likely to spur a global reaction against the United States. For this reason, the Act contains a safeguard clause that allowed the previous president – Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama – to invoke the Act for security reasons [Jerusalem Embassy Act of 1995, S.7R (2)].

Paradoxically, Trump’s rhetoric on Israel shifted lately towards a more moderate direction. During his speech on the Holocaust Remembrance Day, he avoided mentioning the anti-Semitism or the Jewish victims. The same tactic seems to be following also Trump’s office. Adding to Trump’s speech, the press secretary of the White House, Sean Spicer stressed that the new Israeli settlements might create a significant impediment for peacekeeping. In fact, this shift in the presidential rhetoric – from pro-Israeli to moderate – is a sign of the passage from campaigning to governing according to Dan Shapiro, former US ambassador to Israel (Gaouette and Labott, 2017). Hence, it is now the time for Trump to act as the US president and tackle the Middle East challenges by making amends with the Arabs and moderating his support for Israel.

Why this dispute is so important for the regional peacekeeping

While the two-state solution has been abandoned, at least for now, policymakers should start searching urgently for alternative ways to ease this long-standing conflict. The parallel emergence of religious extremism has been fostering uncontrolled violence activities in the Middle East, North Africa, Asia and Sub-Sahara Africa. Therefore, it becomes imperative to secure regional stability for both local and global communities.

At this point, it is important to understand the correlation between the jihadist ideology and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For decades, the core of Jihadism has been the holy war against the infidels and the Crusaders³. Based on this principle, the Jewish emigration and illegal settlement to Palestine represent the Crusade invasion of Muslim territory. In turn, Israel becomes very often the target of fundamentalist groups that threaten to abolish the Israeli State and its allies.

Searching for alternatives: The one-state scenario

Overall, the future of an independent Palestinian state remains quite uncertain. An alternative solution that Netanyahu mentioned in his latest public statements is the “state-minus” idea, a term referring to the Palestinian state but remains very elusive what this entails. Reportedly, the Israeli Prime Minister endorses the establishment of an autonomous Palestine, self-governed by its people but with different borders that those indicated in previous bilateral agreements (Booth and Eglash, 2017). One is certain, though, that Netanyahu rejects the Palestinian sovereignty in the West Bank and East Jerusalem – possibly for security reasons related with the domination of Hamas⁴ in Gaza Strip, located very close to the Israeli borders (BBC, 2017a).

For some peer reviews, the establishment of an Israeli-Palestinian state is the best solution. According to Habib, the two-state solution has not resolved the existing dispute, but only added the Israeli expansion in the West Bank and the division of the Palestinian Authority. Moreover, the two parties share so many security challenges that only a unified state can settle. Indeed, parallel military cooperation between Israel and Palestine against ISIS will build a trust-building relationship and may lead to ‘direct talks for the cessation of hostilities’ (Habib, 2016). Consequently, the Islamic State would lose the chance of radicalizing young Palestinians in Gaza and its claim over the Palestinian territory.

On the other hand, a bi-national democratic state is so difficult to achieve. The former UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process (2007-2015), Robert Serry, warned that the one-state concept is an unsustainable solution, bound to lead to a renewed conflict (UN, 2017). Supposedly, this scenario assumes that the Israeli state would give full rights to the Palestinians – citizenship and the right to vote. In this case, Israelis would become a minority inside their country – given the high birth rate of Palestinians. If no equal rights were provided, this new regime would lead to new apartheid; Israel could not integrate the Palestinian community and its democracy would be put under question.

Bringing an end to the conflict: The uncertain future

Undoubtedly, the continuous illegal expansions of the Israeli government are breaching the international law leading the country into diplomatic isolation. Voices all over the world have already started to push their governments for boycotts against Israel. The executive committee member of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), Ms Hanan Ashrawi has reiterated that this act constitutes a war crime and breaches the UN resolution 2334 (BBC, 2017c). For the United Nations, the two-state solution is regarded as the only way to establish peace in the region. According to the spokesman for the UN secretary-general, Stephane Dujarric, there is no plan B (BBC, 2017c).

Following the latest developments, it is obvious that the chance of finding an alternative solution – satisfying for both parties- is close-to-zero. History shows that the two-state solution has been the product of several years of preparations and bilateral negotiations. So far, the pro-Israeli Trump administration has not offered an alternative solution. Perhaps, this is the reason why the US President chose to tone down his enthusiastic approach towards Israel. This way, his sceptical approach may help Israelis and Palestinians to think carefully about their future.

Going one step further, some analysts estimate that Trump’s foreign policy could initiate the peace process. Unlike Obama, Trump has already expressed the intention to promote a joint US-Russian military presence in the Middle East and considers further cooperation with Sunni Arab Nations -Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Jordan⁵. Thus, multilateral cooperation can contribute to a new negotiating round between Abbas and Netanyahu for the resolution of the dispute. Alternatively, if the United States choose to follow the path of isolation, then it is very probable that the Middle East peace will fail.

Nevertheless, an optimal solution for Israel and the United States appears to be the sustainability of the current status quo. Having secured its allies in the Middle East, Israel’s only enemies are Syria and Iran. The recent multilateral agreement on the Iranian nuclear program serves well not only the Israeli nuclear interests but also the Arab countries; both fear a powerful Iran that could pull its nuclear power card to attack its enemies. For Arabs, Israel represents the pillar of the regional stability over the Iranian military expansionism, a realization that opened the dialogue for the normalisation of the Arab-Israeli relations (Kramer, 2016). As for the US, the Arab countries constitute a valuable partner in the Middle East and North Africa. On that account, the White House decided to soften its provocative language towards Palestine that would otherwise alienate the Arab world from the US-Israel alliance in defence of its cultural and religious ties with the Arab Palestinians.

Photo: Joshua Doubek,  Inside the West Bank on the West Bank barrier (2009). Source: (Wikimedia) | (CC-BY-SA-3.0)  

Footnotes

[1] David Friedman:

A pro-Israeli supporter and Orthodox Jewish, known for his involvement in the Beit El, an Israeli settlement council of the West Bank; also, the bankruptcy lawyer and campaign adviser of Donald Trump. Friedman’s lack of diplomatic skills attracted the public attention; in return, the press highly criticised Trump for rewarding his long-time friend with the role of the US ambassador to Israel.

[2] Jerusalem Embassy Act:

In 1995, Congress passed the relevant Act, which provides the legal context for the relocation of the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

[3] Crusaders:

The term refers to the Christian armies participated in the Crusades and attempted to conquer the Holy Land (Israel, Palestine, Jordan) from Muslims. Nowadays, the Islamist militant groups are using very often this term to imply the United States and its allies.

[4] Hamas:

A Palestinian militant group, whose aim is to destroy Israel and create a Palestinian State based on the Sharia law. Listed as a terrorist group from the US, its nationalist vision contradicts ISIS pan-Islamic plan to create a Caliphate including Palestine. The current domination of Hamas in Gaza strip poses an immediate threat to the Israeli borders; in the past, it led to the military assaults of 2008 and 2014.

[5] Jordan:

King Abdullah II of Jordan was appointed by the United Nations as a mediator between the Government of Israel and the Palestinian representatives.

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