Yemen: A civil war turned into humanitarian crisis

In contradiction with the first estimations that the civil war in Yemen would last no longer than a few weeks, five years have passed since its outbreak. Not only the conflict has surpassed the regional boundaries but also garnered the bulk of international attention. Today, Yemen has become a synonym of a world humanitarian crisis – trapped in a longstanding battlefield between Shia and Sunni regional powers, while its 30 million population is suffering. In this article, we are unveiling the momentum of this conflict along with its main challenges, whose elimination can bring sustainable development in Yemen. 

The momentum of the civil war  

It all started back in 2011, with the revolution of the Arab Spring in the Middle East and North Africa. At that time, the authoritarian leader of Yemen for nearly 3 decades was forced to hand over the power to his deputy, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. 

The transitional period that followed revealed the frail political system in the country, which resurfaced a number of underlying problems that soon led into a civil war: the rise of  the Houthi movement¹  in the North, a Shia-led group of rebels; the opposition of Saleh’s supporters towards the new leader;  the separatists of the South²; the presence of extremist groups in the region; the deteriorating living conditions of the Yemenis. 

Following the lingering clashes within the country, it didn’t take too long for the Northern rebels to spot Hadi’s weaknesses. Between 2014 and early 2015, Houthis planned and carried out attacks on the northern part of the country. With Saleh’s supporters on their side, the capital of Sanaa and the wider region fell soon under the rebels’ control. 

In the fear of a potential expansion of Shia influence in the region, Sunni regional powers stepped up and with the support of the US, UK and France, a Sunni coalition was formed between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Here, the ultimate goal was to restore Hadi’s government and restrain the influence of Iran through its alliance with the Houthis. Despite Iran’s denial of holding any ties with the Yemeni rebels, US revelations of intercepting Irani weapons shipments – with the suspicion that these were heading to the Houthis in Yemen – may prove otherwise. 

Meanwhile, the continuation of the armed conflict between the Houthis – that consolidated their position in Sanaa – and the Sunnis – that managed to settle Hadi’s government safely to the South – soon escalated into two key operations with a direct impact on the living conditions of the population; first, the ballistic missile attack in Riyadh in November 2017; second, the blockade of the Hudaydah port the following year. In the latter incident, the disruption of food supplies was imminent as the port constitutes a substantial route for food transportation, intended for more than two-thirds of the population. 

Yemen: a world humanitarian crisis

Victims of a wider power struggle in the Middle East, Yemenis suffer one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises since the end of the Cold War. The numbers are quite striking: 14 million people are now living at the risk of starvation and death. Over a two-year period (2016-2018), the victims of direct violence passed the 63,000, while the indirect deaths had a heavy toll on children under the age of five, amounting to 45% of deaths due to malnutrition. Following the UN Development Programme estimations, ‘’one child will die every 11 minutes and 54 seconds if fighting continues through 2019’’ (UNDP, 2019a). 

At the moment, starvation and epidemic diseases are identified as the biggest scourges in Yemen. Given that local agricultural productivity has fallen below 50% – due to high cost of production and the displacement of large numbers of the population – the importation of food products through humanitarian cargos has proven rather problematic due to obstacles imposed on the main food passages from both sides. As a result, ‘’ more than 60 per cent of the population require help just to survive’’… having limited to no access to water or sanitation, conditions that favour, of course, the spread of epidemic diseases such as malaria and cholera (UNDP, 2019b: 3). 

On a third level, gender inequality has deteriorated over the course of the war, with women and children representing three-quarters of those who are displaced, while gender violence has surged by 36% for the period between 2015 and 2016 (UNDP, 2019b: 5). 

No alignment means no ceasefire  

After numerous UN attempts to pass a ceasefire resolution in Yemen,  a temporary peace deal³  was reached in December 2018, which managed to halt the conflict between the government and the rebels, but was shortly resumed. 

What complicates things even further is the fragmentation within the formed alliances – the anti-government and the pro-government. First, the anti-government clash was due to a dispute over the control of Sanaa’s biggest mosque in November 2017 followed by the death of the former Yemeni leader. As a matter of fact, Houthis took the responsibility for Saleh’s death, as retaliation for pledging openly his support to Saudi Arabia (Wintour, 2019). Shortly after Saleh’s fall, the rebels strengthened their strategic position. 

Second, the pro-government clash followed as a result of the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) attack over the military bases in Aden. The latter accused Hadi of holding ties with the Islamists. For nearly three years, the separatists set aside their plans for an independent South Yemen, by deciding to fight alongside the government military forces. However, infighting does not stop here. By adding the regional powers to the dispute,  Saudi Arabia and UAE decided to align with different sides for their own reasons⁴ – Saudi Arabia with the Hadi’s government and UAE with the separatists respectively. 

Following the latest developments, the pro-government coalition seems to have overcome its differences and reconciled. A mutual agreement, known as the Riyadh Agreement, was reached earlier this month. In short, it was decided that northerners and southerners will equally participate in the formation of a new cabinet under the supervision of the Saudis. Interestingly enough, this new agreement grants more rights – compared to the past- to the south secessionists in return for their re-alignment with the Sunni-led coalition. 

Along with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the US president has also approved the new plan. In the same context, the UN envoy recognised the positive steps taken towards peace efforts. However, some peers expressed their concern over the obstacles that the coalition needs to overcome for attaining a successful peacekeeping (April Longsley; quoted in Rashad, 2019). 

Why the Yemen civil war matters for the world

There is no question that the crisis in Yemen needs to end. Not only regional stability is under threat but also the global economy. Of course, it is important to highlight here the geo-strategic position of Yemen as an essential hub of the oil shipment trail between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. From here, oil-tankers depart to Europe and Asia. Any disruptions caused by war attacks can lead to serious cuts in the global oil supplies which, in turn, will rocket the global oil prices. A good example here sets the drone attack of September 14 undertaken by the Houthi Militia to the Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia. 

Next, the international community should monitor closely the situation in Yemen and contribute actively in the political and economic restoration of the country to avoid the resurgence of extremism. Amid a climate of dispute and further exacerbation, other jihadist groups – the Islamic State and the al- Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) – operating in the region saw the opportunity to interfere in the South, by carrying attacks and gaining territory – mainly in Aden. Especially for AQAP, the South has long been a haven (Raghavan, 2019). Besides, it is no secret that a country lacking political and economic stability can easily become a pole of attraction for terrorism and counterterrorism. 

On a humanitarian basis, the cost of human lives allows no more room for global indifference. Admittedly, all sides seem to have violated human rights and international humanitarian law. Therefore, respect for human rights during armed conflicts is the key to stop starvation and humanitarian crisis in Yemen. The safe entry of food supplies and other goods needs to be mutually respected by both parties, while access to water plays a vital role in the outburst of diseases. As noted by UNDP, ‘’in 2018, Yemen was subject to the largest outbreak of cholera in modern history’’ (UNDP, 2019b: 6). 

Looking ahead

Over the last 20 years, the country’s values fell back to the same level as in 1998 – even in the absence of conflict (UNDP, 2019b; 16). It is, therefore, no coincidence that the country continues to be plagued by poverty, insecurity and all forms of violence. 

The big question that arises here is how Yemen will return to normality? The answer is rather simple; by returning the control and decision-making to one central government under the supervision of the United Nations. According to Martin Griffiths, UN Special Envoy for Yemen, the key to success lies in the resolution of any impending disputes; internally, between political parties; externally, with the neighbouring countries (Griffiths, 2019). Perhaps, the formation of autonomous regions that will align with the centre may also help in this context (Raghavan, 2019). 

Second, the strengthening of the rule of law at a national level is quite essential, something that can be attained through the promotion of the human rights and the active participation of the country in the institutions of global governance (UNDP, 2019b: 16). For instance, the country is not even a member state of the International Criminal Court. 

Finally, by restoring the political trust and order of law, the recovery of the economy will follow soon after, allowing the restoration of the natural flow of trade and food distribution, leaving no space for the proliferation and spreading of extremist ideologies in the country. Here, the involvement and cooperation of the international community are vital for securing investments in infrastructure and technology, as a way to improve agricultural productivity. In return, this will allow access to affordable medicine and clean energy – especially for a country that has abundant access to solar energy. Last but not least, a crucial passage to sustainable development is also the fight over discrimination; empowering women to work can actively contribute to the economic growth and development of the country.

Photo: Felton Davis, 414 Child Gazing at Rubble (2018). Source: (flickr.com) | (CC BY 2.0) 

Footnotes 

[1] The Houthi movement:

A rebel group located in North Yemen, also known as the former Arab Republic. Before Yemen’s unification in 1990, this area was for decades under the rule of Zaydis Believing Youth movement, until it was ousted during the 1962 revolution. 

[2] The separatists of the South:

This secessionist group resides in South Yemen, formerly known as the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen before its unification with the north in 1990. The people of this region always felt marginalised and desolated from the modern political life of Yemen.

[3] A temporary peace deal:

Also known as the Stockholm Agreement, the peace deal was obliging the involved parties to withdraw their forces from the Red Sea – a vital part of the trade corridor for the import of food supplies and goods. 

[4] Saudi Arabia and UAE decided to align with the different sides for their own reasons:

The fragmentation between the pro-government forces is a good example that the two neighbouring countries have also their own agenda in the region. Whereas Saudi Arabia’s main goal is to oust Iran’s influence in the region, UAE’s focus is now on the Red Sea and India Ocean routes; meaning that an alliance with the separatists would bring Emirates closer to gaining control of Aden. 

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