Cuba after Fidel Castro

From Cuba’s transitional era to Venezuela’s crisis

For nearly 53 years, Cuba has been under Fidel Castro’s rule. By opposing to Fulgencio Batista’s dictatorship, the Cuban revolution began in 1960 with the First Havana Declaration; more than 1 million Cubans pledged their support to Fidel Castro and the National General Assembly of the Cuban People. The contribution of the Bolivarian Internationalist leader, Ernesto Che Guevara in Havana’s Declaration has further inspired the revolution across Latin America and Africa.

Two years after overthrowing the party of Batista, Castro introduced the socialist regime in Cuba and established a one-party system based on the founding ideas of Marxism – Leninism. The success and survival of anti-imperialism in Cuba are linked with the historical strive for independence in Latin America. Of course, this principle collided with the US plans to establish a Pan-American hegemony, known as Pax Americana. As retaliation to Cuba’s disobedience, the United States decided to isolate Cuba’s economy and block its imports/exports.

After the American embargo, Cuba found new allies among other socialist countries and revolutionary movements around the world; namely, it was the Soviet Union and China that provided the domestic economy with external supplies. Shortly after the U.S. threat for nuclear war, Soviets proceeded to the withdrawal of their nuclear missiles from Cuba in 1962; for Cubans, this decision was viewed as a betrayal and soon the Soviet – Cuban alliance reached a low point.

Following the Soviet collapse in the 1990s, the Cuban economy entered a severe market crisis due to shortages in imports; it was evident that an isolated economy could not survive. Soon, Venezuela and Cuba became very close allies; the admiration of the Venezuelan leader – Hugo Chavez – for Cuba’s revolution and his aspiration to establish a Bolivarian Revolution in his country brought the two leaders very close. Other than the ideological solidarity, it was also the cheap Venezuelan oil prices that alleviated the energy crisis in Cuba (Hart, 2004b; quoted in Harris, 2009: 38).

Gradually, Chavez’s ideology moved to the far left and committed to socialism by envisioning Cuban type socialism in Venezuela (Hart, 2004a; quoted in Harris, 2009: 39). As a consequence, U.S. anger turned against Chavez’s regime; now, both Latin American economies were stigmatized from the Western world and had to fight for their axioms while surviving global isolation.

A dictator for his critics, a revolutionary for his supporters

Admittedly, Castro was a charismatic leader yet a controversial political figure. Among his greatest achievements, he attained to resist the US expansionism – only 145 km off the coast of Florida – and established a universal healthcare system for Cubans. On the other hand, he received a lot of criticism for human rights violations due to thousands of deportations and imprisonments. Towards this direction, one of the traditional groups in Cuba – the Ladies in White, founded by the wives of jailed dissidents- protest for the respect of the human rights and the release of political prisoners. In addition, Castro led Cuba to global isolation by cutting the ties with the US and bringing the world on the brink of a nuclear war.

With the announcement of Castro’s death, many world leaders paid their respect to Cuba’s former president; among them, the Chinese President, Xi Jinping; the Russian President, Vladimir Putin; the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau. Of his main critics, the newly elected US President – Donald Trump – characterized Castro as a brutal dictator, while Barack Obama remained neutral (BBC, 2016a). Interestingly enough, Trump’s plans will form the basis for future US-Cuba relations; it remains to be seen whether he will stay intransigent in his views and follow a different foreign policy from Obama.

A new era for Cuba’s foreign affairs

In the post-Fidel Cuba, a new era of foreign affairs has begun. Since Fidel’s retirement, his brother Raul took over the presidency and launched a new, softer approach with the West; the visit of the US president in March and the recent meetings with the EU officers signify a change of attitude in Cuba’s external policy which in the past resulted in its global isolation.

After a half-century, diplomatic relations with the United States have been restored. In March, Obama’s visit to Cuba was translated as a sign of warming the US-Cuba relations. Currently, the US-Cuba commission works in this direction; also, Obama’s administration pushed the American companies to complete business deals – on telecommunications, manufacturing and commercial trips – with Cuba before Trump’s appointment on January 20. Despite the positive outcome of the talks, there are fears that the newly elected president will freeze the negotiations and reverse Obama’s moves, which could revive the revolutionary trends on the island. Indeed, Trump has already disclosed his intention to search for a better deal with Cuba (Marsh et al, 2016). Furthermore, many Americans questioned the success of this diplomatic attempt as Obama made many concessions for too little in return from the Cuban government (Euractiv.com with Reuters, 2016).

After Obama’s visit to Cuba, the pressure for the European Union to normalise diplomatic relations with Cuba – which were blocked for decades – has been intensified. The Havana meeting in March has marked a new beginning in the bilateral relations between Brussels and Havana (Euractiv.com with Reuters, 2016). Eventually, on December 12th, the two parties signed a new agreement on the normalisation of their ties. Surprisingly, Cuba has been the only Latin American country with no EU deal on trade, human rights and migration. Despite positive progress in the talks with Havana, a closer partnership will require structural improvements in Cuba’s human rights – a major clause on the EU agreements with third partners. On this matter, the EU imposed sanctions on Cuba after the 2003 Black Spring crackdown that led on journalists and activists’ arrests.

For China, a fellow communist regime, the death of Fidel Castro has received great publicity. Despite the ideological convergence, their modern relations revolve mainly around social and economic cooperation (Shih, 2016). Since the 1990s, the Chinese economy has become more extrovert and open to foreign investments. To date, Cuba is heavily depended on Chinese imports; following Venezuela, China constitutes its second-biggest partner. As for China, the Cuban market is of high importance for the Chinese exports and a closer US-Cuba cooperation will threaten the Chinese monopoly.

Finally, Cuba has been a very close ally with Venezuela for the last 20 years. Through history, this relationship was proved very significant for the survival of these two socialist regimes; Venezuela provided Cuba with its oil supplies; in return, Cuba has supported Venezuela’s social healthcare. Yet, Venezuela has reacted indifferently to Fidel’s death. Could that be due to the internal crisis that plagues the country? First of all, it is true that their bilateral relations entered a cooling period after the death of their former leaders. Second, the current global challenges will lead to new coalitions at the regional level. The current plans of Raul Castro to step down in 2018 might lead to the election a new Cuban leader that could be more dedicated to advancing Cuba’s relationship with the US; in return, such a strategy could distance the two traditional allies. However, the dependence of Cuba from the Venezuelan oil is a sign that the two countries will stay close allies – at least for the near future.

Is the Post-Chavez Venezuela becoming the next Cuba?

In order to answer this question, it is necessary to look into the movement of Hugo Chavez, also known as Chavismo or Chavista hegemony. By introducing the Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela, Chavez was self-identified as a moderate socialist who disliked the traditional party system, the free market and as a consequence the liberal western economies. From this point of view, the establishment of the PSUV (Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela) was an attempt to introduce an anti-party system in Venezuela. His political debut in 1998 did not imply a straight path of success. It was only after the 2004 referendum – a recall to withdraw Chavez from power – when his public acceptance rose above 50%. Between 2003-2008, the increasing oil prices have also added to his popularity.

Taking into account his achievements, not only he managed to restore Venezuela’s weak economy, but also to lift the state revenues by regaining the state control over vital economic sectors including the national oil resources of Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA); in the 1990s, the company was quasi-privatised. During Chavez’s period in office, the government increased public spending in social care due to access to public revenues. Thanks to Hugo Chavez, Venezuela became the most equitable country in Latin America by 2012 (UNHSP, 2012; quoted in Hetland, 2016).

However, the movement of Chavismo is far from perfect. Although moderate voices form the majority of PSUV, the inclusion of radical left and right ideologies inside the party have caused many times internal party conflicts. In order to retain the political unity of the socialist party, Chavez chose to remain tolerant towards corruption and bureaucracy. After Chavez’s death in 2013, Nicolas Maduro – a moderate socialist – was elected as the next leader of the PSUV. Inevitably, Chavismo entered an era of crisis after the 2014 oil price drops followed by the deep economic crisis that hit the country. Decidedly, the public disgrace for Chavismo was clearly mirrored in the 2015 Parliamentary elections. Nonetheless, Chavista hegemony is still powerful in Venezuela.

In parallel with the rise of Chavismo, its opponents have been increasing all over the world – especially in the mainstream media and the western world. The dislike of the United States for the revolutionary trends in Latin America is quite clear. In Latin America, the disproval towards Nicolas Maduro emanates essentially from the liberal- centrist leaders in Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina (Margolis, 2016). The recent political turmoil in Venezuela and its low oil-production have sparked the threats of suspension from Mercosur¹; allegedly, it is the failure of compliance with the union’s regulations and rules due to lack of democratic principles in Venezuela (Renwich, 2016).

Along with corruption, inflation rates hit a record high in Venezuela. The pressure to devaluate the national currency adds more weight in the work of the government and increases its negative popularity. Moreover, the internal conflicts in the PSUV might lead to the split of the party, as right and left powers coexist. This fear is even closer to reality after the death of Chavez who successfully protected the integrity of his party all these years.

All in all, the revolutionary reform of socialism as expressed by Fidel Castro and followed by Hugo Chavez is under risk. The weakness of both regimes is even more prevalent after the death of their leaders. In Venezuela, corruption – if not eliminated -might divide deeper the society. As for Cuba, Raul as the legitimate successor of Castro’s regime is not expected to diverge from Fidel’s principles. Undoubtedly, he appears to follow a more extrovert foreign policy than his brother. The public appearances of Raul Castro with Barack Obama in 2014 prove this theory; the diplomatic ties with the US were restored in 2015 under Obama’s presidency. Could Cuba follow the Chinese model of a communist extrovert country? This is a huge possibility in the post-Fidel era. Eventually, Raul’s plans to withdraw from power in 2018 might be a strategic step for Cuba to seek a closer partnership with the western liberal democracies and become an active member of the global financial market.

Photo: AK Rockefeller, Castro (2012). Source: (flickr.com) | (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Footnotes

[1] Suspension from Mercosur:

In the process of creating a single market in South America, Mercosur is an economic and political bloc that provides free movement between its member and regulates trade with third parties including the EU.

Despite receiving criticism for not complying with the bloc’s requirements, Venezuela became a member of Mercosur in 2012. Apparently, Brazil pushed the accession of Caracas due to its rich oil resources that would boost the bloc’s economy.

Bibliography

BBC (2016a) Donald Trump calls Fidel Castro ‘brutal dictator’, BBC News, 26th November, Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-38118739 (Accessed 18th December 2016)

BBC (2016b) Fidel Castro death: Cuban dissidents call off weekly march, BBC News, 27th November, Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-38124302 (Accessed 18th December 2016)

Bloomberg (2016) Cuba After Castro, Bloomberg View, 27th November, Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-11-27/cuba-after-castro (Accessed 15th December 2016)

Borger J. (2016) Trump and Obama offer divergent responses to death of Fidel Castro, The Guardian, 26th November, Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/26/fidel-castro-death-obama-trump-response (Accessed 21st December 2016)

Euractiv.com with AFP (2016) EU, Cuba sign pact to normalise relations, Euractiv.com, 12th December, Available at: http://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/eu-cuba-sign-pact-to-normalise-relations/ (Accessed 20th December 2016)

Euractiv.com with Reuters (2016) Obama in Cuba on historic visit, Euractiv.com, 21st March, Available at: http://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/obama-in-cuba-on-historic-visit/ (Accessed 20th December 2016)  

Harris L. R. (2009) Cuban Internationalism, Che Guevara, and the Survival of Cuba’s Socialist Regime, Latin American Perspectives, 166 (36,3); 27-42, Available at: http://journals.sagepub.com (Accessed 13th December 2016)

Hetland G. (2016) From System Collapse to Chavista Hegemony; the Party Question in Bolivarian Venezuela, Latin American Perspectives, 44 (1): 17-36, Available at: http://journals.sagepub.com (Accessed 13th December 2016)

Margolis M. (2016) Mercosur Turns its Back on a Diminished Venezuela, Bloomberg, 9th December, Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-09/mercosur-turns-its-back-on-a-diminished-venezuela (Accessed 20th December 2016)

Marsh S., Acosta N., Frank M. and Spetalnick M. (2016) Cuba, U.S. to discuss detente in wake of Trump election, Reuters, 6th December, Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/cuba-usa-idUSL5N1E15Q8 (Accessed 20th December 2016)

Mützel D. (2016) European socialists want better Cuba relations, US remains problematic, Euractiv.de, 20th October, Available at: http://www.euractiv.com/section/trade-society/news/european-socialists-want-better-cuba-relations-us-remains-problematic/ (Accessed 20th December 2016)

Renwich D. (2016) Mercosur: South America’s Fractious Trade Bloc, Council on Foreign Relations, 5th October, Available at: http://www.cfr.org/trade/mercosur-south-americas-fractious-trade-bloc/p12762 (Accessed 20th December 2016)

Shih G. (2016) Castro’s death a Reminder in China of Changed Communist Axis, The Associated Press/Bloomberg, 26th November, Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-26/castro-s-death-a-reminder-in-china-of-changed-communist-axis (Accessed 20th December 2016)

Woody C. (2016) After Fidel Castro’s death, Cuba and Venezuela may turn to each other for political survival, Business Insider, 3th December, Available at: http://uk.businessinsider.com/fidel-castro-death-effects-nicolas-maduro-venezuela-2016-12?r=US&IR=T (Accessed 17th December 2016)