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Shaping the Regional Dynamics in the East Mediterranean – Part II

Description of the map: The map depicts the East Mediterranean region. In blue: areas claimed by Greece and the Republic of Cyprus. In red: Areas claimed by Turkey. «A-B Section»: asserted delimitation between Turkey and Libya as per November 2019 agreement between Turkey and Libyan GNA. «C-D Section»: delimitation agreed between Greece and Egypt as per the August 2020 agreement.

 

In light of hydrocarbon reserves discovered in the East Mediterranean, the attention has shifted again towards this corner of the Mediterranean, where Europe meets the Middle East.

This article is part of a trilogy that explores the latest challenges East Mediterranean experiences. The first article sheds light on the particularities of this region and how the recent hydrocarbon findings have contributed to the current crises, while the second part explores the profile of the regional states, which influence one way or another the future of the region.

It is now time to study the long-term disputes that jeopardise the stability and prosperity of the East Mediterranean – directly or indirectly – under the light of the hydrocarbon discoveries in the region.

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Shaping the Regional Dynamics in the East Mediterranean – Part I

In the light of hydrocarbon reserves discovered in the East Mediterranean, the attention shifted towards this corner of the Mediterranean, where Europe meets the Middle East. This article is part of a trilogy that explores the latest challenges East Mediterranean experience based on these new findings.

Article 1 “Conflicts in the East Mediterranean: Why it matters” shed light on the particularities of this region and how the recent hydrocarbon findings have contributed to the current crises.

In this analysis, Article 2 of the trilogy, the objective is to monitor the shifting dynamics in this region and understand how each entity or state adapts to this new reality. On this account, the below section enlists the group of regional players from the perspective of their rebranded identity motivated by the discovery of hydrocarbons findings.

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Conflicts in the East Mediterranean

Why it matters

The East Mediterranean covers a region that stretches from Italy’s heel tip eastward to the Levant¹. Throughout history, it has played a crucial role in world politics. Given its geographic position as a crossroad between Africa, Europe, and Asia, East Mediterranean has become numerous times the epicentre of great competition and conflict.

During the Cold War, East Med was vital for the United States. Its geographic location became a landmark of delimitation between the US-USSR influence zones that would refrain Communism from penetrating the three continents. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US attention shifted to other regions that were undergoing more pressing crises (such as the Balkans, the Persian Gulf, and the Horn of Africa).

The last decade has seen a rising tension in the region, which has picked the interest of political experts. As a result, many voices urged the United States to renew its attention in the Mediterannean. The below section lists the ongoing conflicts the region encounters. Read more

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Iraqi Kurdistan On The Route To Independence

Unravelling the effects of the Kurdish referendum in the Middle East

In the era of overshadowed states, stronger regional organisations and non-state actors, the Kurdish Independence referendum in Northern Iraq on September 25 has shaken the Middle East this year. Mixed reactions and a climate of uncertainty left regional and global players speculating as to what the future might be in the region.

Beyond any personal views on the matter, the current article does not intend to legitimise or condemn the independence movement of the Kurds in Northern Iraq. In contrast, the aim is to uncover the implications and risks involved for the regional stability and beyond, if a Kurdish state in Northern Iraq could trigger a pan-Kurdish revolution in the Middle East.

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The After Effect of Turkey’s Coup D’état

The long-term repercussions for Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy

One month later and Turkey’s coup d’état is still on the news. The reason why Turkey’s political regime attracted the attention of the world media can be found in Turkey’s role in world politics. Part of the G20¹ and traditional US ally, Turkey’s geostrategic location is of high importance in the regional balance due to its borders with Syria, Iran and Iraq. As for Europe, the recent refugee crisis has brought closer the European Union with Turkey. Read more

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Syria: A Refugee Crisis

Over the last five years, more than 20 million people have been displaced inside Syria or even exiled to neighbouring countries and Europe. With a Civil War taking place between those in favour and those against President Bashar-al Assad, violence and war crimes have been committed from both sides as a result of this battle. Additionally, the involvement of religious sects with the significant rise of the jihadist group of Islamic State (IS) in Syria deteriorates further the conflict.

In the fear of a refugee influx inside Europe, many EU member states have decided to impose entry restrictions to newcomers by adhering to the Regulation (EU) 604/2013 (Dublin III Regulation). This regulation shapes the Common European Asylum System which sets a single Member State as responsible for the examination of the asylum applications [Article 3,1 and 3,2 of the Regulation EU 604/2013). According to Article 18, the responsible Member State is obliged to take back the third-country national, if another Member State rejects the asylum application. Thus, the Dublin III regulation could be translated like a “burden and a punishment for the Member State which permitted the individual to arrive in the Union” (Guild 2006:637 quoted in Mouzourakis, 2014:11).

As an additional measure to stop irregular migration in Europe, the recent EU-Turkey Agreement on 18 March permits the return of migrants and asylum seekers to Turkey. The agreement recalls that each application of a third national will be subject to the EU asylum rules (Directive 2013/32/EU). The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, expressed his serious concerns over the agreement and suggested the implementation of practical recommendations of the UN or other international organisations/experts. Finally, he warned, “if the EU starts to circumvent international law, there could be a deeply problematic knock-on effect in other parts of the world” (OHCHR, 2016).

The United Nations position over the EU Refugee policies

With the borders now closed, tens of thousands of refugees are now stranded in Greece. The UN Refugee Agency alerted the international community by saying that international solidarity and organised global action is needed to support the Syrian people. In response to the increasing need for humanitarian assistance in Europe, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has prepared a winterization appeal plan for 2015/2016 due to fears for life losses during the winter months.

Refugee crisis equals to European Crisis

Some interesting conclusions can be drawn here. First of all, the Syrian refugee problem could be translated as a crisis not only in the Middle East but in Europe as well. Both cultures are facing deep cultural and political problems. In the Middle East, the instability, the anarchy and the rise of brutal fanaticism are the dominant generators of refugee flows.

On the other side, Europe seems unable to manage its refugee issues. The internal difficulties such as recession and exit scenarios for Greece/UK put the European integration into risk. Additionally, public opinion is already divided over the reception of refugees in the EU. For instance, Germany has been critical over the strict refugee policy of other EU countries while accepting the largest number of asylum-seekers. On the contrary, Hungary has adopted a stricter stance due to fears of the rising numbers of Muslims in Europe. For the same matter, Czech Republic appeared more sceptical and reserved, while Slovakia suggested stricter measures for third nationals across the borders of the Schengen Area¹. Finally, some Western European countries such as Denmark, France and the UK adopted a quota system in the number of refugees that will enter their territory.

Photo: Mstyslav Chernov, Women and children among Syrian refugees striking at the platform of Budapest Keleti railway station (2015). Source: (Wikimedia Commons) | (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Footnotes

[1] Schengen Area:

The border-free Schengen Area allows free movement of the EU citizens to internal borders without being subjected to border checks including most EU countries (except for Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Ireland, Romania, and the United Kingdom) and four non-EU States (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein).

Bibliography

BBC (2016) Why is EU struggling with migrants and asylum? , BBC News, 3rd March, Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24583286 (Accessed 27th March 2016)

Directive 2013/32/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 June 2013 on common procedures for granting and withdrawing international protection (recast), Official Journal of the European Union L180, 29.6.2013, p.60-95, Available at: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32013L0032&from=en (Accessed 28th March 2016)

European Commission (2016a) EU-Turkey Agreement: Questions and Answers, Press Release, 19th March, Available at: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-16-963_en.htm (Accessed 28th March 2016)

European Commission (2016b) Schengen Area, Migration and Home Affairs, Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/index_en.htm (Accessed 27th March 2016)

Frej W. (2015) Here Are the European Countries that Want to Refuse Refugees, The Huffington Post, 9th September, Available at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/europe-refugees-not-welcome_us_55ef3dabe4b093be51bc8824 (Accessed 27th March 2016)

Mead R.W. (2015) The Roots of the Migration Crisis, The Wall Street Journal, 11th September, Available at: http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-roots-of-the-migration-crisis-1441995372 (Accessed 27th March 2016)

Mouzourakis M. (2014) ‘We Need to Talk about Dublin’, Refugee Studies Centre Working Paper Series, 105, Available at: http://www.rsc.ox.ac.uk/files/publications/working-paper-series/wp105-we-need-to-talk-about-dublin.pdf/ (Accessed 27th March 2016)

OHCHR (2016) UN rights chief expresses serious concerns over EU-Turkey agreement, Media Centre, Geneva, 24th March, Available at: http://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/media.aspx?IsMediaPage=true (Accessed 27th March 2016)

Regulation (EU) No 604/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 June 2013, Official Journal of the European Union L180, 29.06.2013, p.31-59, Available at: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2013:180:0031:0059:EN:PDF(Accessed 27th March 2016)

Rodgers L., Gritten D., Offer J. and Asare P. (2016) Syria: The story of the conflict, BBC News, 11th March, Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-26116868 (Accessed 27th March 2016)

UNHCR (2016a) Syria conflict at five years, News Stories, Geneva, 15th March, Available at: http://www.unhcr.org.uk/news-and-views/news-list/news-detail/article/syria-conflict-at-five-years.html (Accessed 26th March 2016)

UNHCR (2016b) UNHCR Special Envoy Angelina Jolie Pitt visits Greece, Press Releases, 16th March, Available at: http://www.unhcr.org/56e94bd96.html#_ga=1.78198612.1919156883.1458842404 (Accessed 25th March 2016)

UNHCR (2015c) Winterization Plan for the Refugee Crisis in Europe, November 2015-February 2016, Geneva, 5th November, Available at: http://www.unhcr.org/563b26049.html (Accessed 27th March 2016)

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